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Glossary

Quick reference for acronyms, metrics, and terms used throughout the system. This is the page the rest of the wiki points back to whenever a concept needs a deeper definition.

If a page gives a short plain-English explanation and you want the exact technical definition, come back here.


Metrics & Scores

Term Full Name Definition
BQS Bounce Quality Score Precomputed 0-1 score per ticker combining historical bounce rate, magnitude, and consistency. Higher = better mean reversion candidate. Used as primary sort key in Plan Alpha. Refreshed weekly (Sunday 8 PM PT).
PF Profit Factor Gross profit / gross loss. PF > 1.5 = edge worth trading. PF > 2.0 = strong edge.
WR Win Rate Percentage of trades that are profitable. Context-dependent — high WR with thin PF can still lose.
RSI Relative Strength Index Wilder's RSI using EWM (com=period-1). System uses RSI(5) for Plan Alpha and RSI(14) elsewhere.
SMA Simple Moving Average Arithmetic mean of last N closes. SMA200 = 200-day SMA, primary trend filter.
EMA Exponential Moving Average Weighted moving average favoring recent prices. EMA5/9/21/50 used in Plan H and Plan C.
RV Realized Volatility 20-day annualized volatility of daily returns. RV >= 15% qualifies Plan C.
MFE Maximum Favorable Excursion Best unrealized P&L during a trade's life. Used in forward test analysis.
MAE Maximum Adverse Excursion Worst unrealized P&L during a trade's life. Used to calibrate stops.
ATR Average True Range 14-day ATR. Used for Plan M stop placement (2 ATR) and forward test milestones.
OI Open Interest Outstanding option contracts. Minimum OI = 5x estimated contracts for Plan Alpha.
DTE Days to Expiration Calendar days until option expiry. Plan Alpha: 30-120 DTE. Plan M: 30-120 DTE.
MFO Multi-Frame Overlap Breakout signal strength across timeframes. Used in Plan H dual-slot logic.
COT Commitment of Traders CFTC weekly report. Yen COT (75/25 raw signal) used for Plan M short sizing.

Options Terms

Term Definition
Delta (Δ) Probability proxy and directional exposure. 0.30Δ = ~30% ITM probability. Plan Alpha targets 0.30Δ calls; Plan M targets 0.80Δ puts/calls.
OCC Symbol Options Clearing Corporation format: SYMYYMMDDCSSSSSSSS (e.g. GILD260515C00150000 = GILD May 15 2026 150 Call).
Spread % Bid-ask spread as percentage of mid price. Max 15% for Plan Alpha.
Strike Walking Iterating through strikes to find the closest to target delta with acceptable liquidity.
Expiration Walking Iterating through expirations (monthlies first, then weeklies) within DTE range.

Regime & Strategy

Term Definition
Regime Market classification based on SPY 20-day return: Bull (>+2%), Choppy (-2% to +2%), Transition (-4% to -2%), Crash (<-4%).
Episode A cluster of Plan Alpha signal days within 7 calendar days. Entry window = first 2 signal days only.
Catastrophic Stop Emergency exit if stock closes below SMA200 * 0.93 (-7% from SMA200).
Hybrid Exit Plan Alpha exit rule: if green at day 4 close → exit; else hold to day 5 close.
SICADFU Sit In Cash And Don't F*** Up. The "do nothing" plan for regimes with no edge. Park in SGOV.
OVTLYR External signal provider for Plan M swing trades. Produces long/short candidates daily.

Infrastructure

Term Definition
PIT Universe Point-in-time S&P 500 membership. Avoids survivorship bias in backtests.
BQS Precompute Weekly Sunday job that calculates BQS and sector data for all S&P 500 tickers.
GCS Google Cloud Storage. Used for state sync between Mac Studio and GCP VM.
Warmup Plan Alpha 14:45 ET pre-screen. Runs RSI check before the main 1:30 PM PT screener.
Forward Test Live paper tracking of signals against backtest benchmarks. Plan M short tracker started 2026-03-14.

SMA200 Distance Buckets (Plan Alpha)

Backtested 2016-2026. Distance = (close - SMA200) / SMA200.

This table answers a specific question: when a stock is above its 200-day trend line, how far above it is "healthy pullback" versus "too close to breaking down" or "already overextended"?

Distance Win Rate Avg P&L Verdict
0-1% 64.5% 0.90% Filtered out — too close to breakdown
1-2% 77.7% 1.96% Strong
2-3% 75.6% 2.31% Best avg P&L
3-5% 73.0% 1.87% Solid
5-10% 79.2% 1.74% Highest win rate
10-20% 75.6% 1.06% Returns diminish
20%+ 47.1% -0.78% Net loser — skip